Saturday’s showdown between No. 11 BYU and No. 4 Texas Tech at AT&T Stadium — home of the Dallas Cowboys — has the nation’s full attention as the stakes could not be higher in a rematch of the Big 12’s top teams.

And that’s why records continue to be set leading up to the game as attendance is expected to set a college football championship record, and ticker prices reflect that as well.

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Why BYU Can Beat Texas Tech

I’m not going to sugarcoat it, Texas Tech dominated BYU when the two teams met earlier this year, and while oddsmakers think the same outcome will happen again, I’m here to tell you not to plan on it.

Oddsmakers are typically scary good, but they also don’t know BYU ball. For whatever reason, they just can’t quite figure it out as the Cougars continue to do very well against the spread this year (9-3). In fact, the Cougars have the best record against the spread among Power 4 teams over the last five years as oddsmakers continually doubt them, despite the Cougars rolling to a 22-3 record the last two years, and 56-19 over the last five seasons.

And if I was a betting man, I could’ve retired already based on the lines they’ve given BYU over the years. Some of the classics have been an undefeated Top 15 BYU team which came into last year’s meeting with UCF — a team with a losing record — as an underdog.

Anyways, here’s why I feel BYU can get revenge and beat Texas Tech:

BYU Self-Inflicted Wounds

Don’t get me wrong, Texas Tech is one of the most talented teams in the country. I think they can win it all and I hope either BYU or Texas Tech does win it all to help shine the light back on the Big 12.

Having said that, as good as the Red Raiders are, the Cougars are equally as good too. A big part of Tech’s domination last time was due to the many self-inflicted wounds that BYU gave itself — not necessarily anything that Texas Tech caused.

  • A missed field goal: Will Ferrin is usually automatic at those
  • Two shanked punts: Those were the first shanked punts of the entire season
  • A fumbled punt (Texas Tech recovered in the red zone)
  • Kickoff return error (Hagen pinned BYU deep near the goaline)
  • Two easy missed interceptions (Evan Johnson and Tre Alexander saw two interceptions go through their hands). For a defense with 22 takeaways on the season, it was very uncharacteristic and would have given the Cougars the ball at midfield both times.
  • Dropped passes on offense: JoJo Phillips and others dropped a number of catchable balls with no one in the area. Those were drive killers and put the offensive out of rhythm the entire game.

I went back and watched the BYU-Texas Tech game, as well as the Texas Tech-Arizona State game to see what went right and what went wrong. Here are the things that stood out to me:

2025 Big 12 Championship: BYU, Texas Tech Already Setting Records

Keys To Victory

Special Teams: Arizona State made several big punt returns to help give the Sun Devils good field position. Texas Tech’s offense is good, but it’s defense is arguably the best in the country. And with all the takeaways and short fields they give the offense, having good field position is necessary as going the length of the field against the Red Raider defense is something no offense wants to do. In addition, Arizona State kicker Jesus Gomez went 4-for-4 on field goals to help give the Sun Devils the win. If BYU wants to win, it needs to be special on special teams. The Cougars have done that for much of the season, but they’ve also been shaky in several games too, including the game against Tech. They can’t do that if they want to win.

Chunk Plays/Deep Shots: Arizona State attacked on offense. They didn’t try to run around the edges as the Red Raider defense is too fast for that. The Sun Devils attacked down the field with a number of deep throws that were either caught, or Texas Tech got called for pass interference. BYU never really tried doing any of that for some reason. If BYU can spread the ball out and connect on some deep shots, that will force Tech to not be able to crowd the box which will open up running lanes for Bear Bachmeier to break off some nice runs and keep drives alive.

Team Health: Arizona State had its star power and needed all of it to win. BYU was without some of it’s star power as running back LJ Martin, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, was very banged up and didn’t play much. In addition, Sione Moa — the No. 2 running back for the Cougars missed the game as well. Texas Tech is already good enough and playing with third and fourth string running backs is a tough uphill battle.

The good news for BYU fans is that both players are healthy and should be good to go Saturday. Moa is a powerful downhill runner while LJ is a mix of speed and power. Martin wasn’t even close to be 100% in Lubbock and with both players now healthy, expect a better rushing attack from BYU. Texas Tech still has a dominant front and arguably the best in the country, but if the Cougars can improve from what they did last time, that will help tremendously.

Tight Ends: Aaron Roderick needs to get the tight ends involved more. A mix of blocking and catching seemed to be key and Arizona State which utilized that position to get guys open as tight end Chamon Metayer caught five passes and averaged more than 16 yards per reception too. BYU featured Carson Ryan on one trick play in the first half against Tech last time, but they didn’t really look for him the rest of the game. The Cougars need to do a better job at that as the Red Raiders will be paying extra attention to Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston.

Two-Minute Drill: Don’t give Texas Tech defense a chance to setup. BYU scored it’s only touchdown of the game by running a two-minute drill which featured a bunch of passing plays. Bachmeier was able to roll out and finished the drive going 7-for-7 for 68 yards and a touchdown. That’s the same thing that Sam Leavitt did for Arizona State as the Sun Devils put together a two minute drive to win the game after Tech rallied to take the lead late in the game. Going quick and not allowing the Red Raiders defense to setup is key.

2025 Big 12 Championship: BYU, Texas Tech Already Setting Records

The Downside

Early morning games.

Since as long as I can remember, BYU has never played well in the early morning. The only exception was last year against Baylor as the Cougars actually took the lead right from the start, but then had to hold on for the win in a very close game.

Going from late-night kickoffs at 8:30 p.m. to an early 10 a.m. start is a drastic swing, and it’s one BYU hasn’t traditionally handled well. The Cougars have built an identity around thriving under the lights, but shifting that internal rhythm to a morning setting has proven tricky over the years.

The bright side for BYU is that last week’s matchup against UCF offered a helpful tune-up. That game kicked off at 11 a.m., giving the Cougars a chance to rehearse an early-morning routine and iron out some of the timing issues that come with it. Whether that preparation pays off will be evident quickly on Saturday.

Another element that can’t be ignored is the turnover battle. In the short history of this series, the formula has been simple: win the takeaways, win the game. Texas Tech did it in dominant fashion in Lubbock, 3–0, while BYU flipped the script the previous year with a 5–0 advantage in Provo. With both defenses capable of game-changing plays, turnovers may end up determining everything.

Saturday isn’t just another rematch — it’s a game both sides have been waiting on for weeks, especially for star receiver Chase Roberts who boldly claimed the Cougars would play the Red Raiders again this year. He delivered on that promise and now, the Cougars will look to make the most of their second chance.

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