Here’s to another great week of Big 12 football predictions!
Week four should be a fun one with a full slate of great matchups with several games pitting undefeated Big 12 teams against each other. Last week I went 10-3 thanks to losses from Kansas, TCU and West Virginia. Hopefully this week will be better as the perfect week still evades me.
The Big 12 still has seven undefeated teams remaining in: BYU, Utah, UCF, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State and Oklahoma State. That number will drop to at least 5 by the end of the week as BYU (3-0) hosts No. 13 Kansas State (3-0) at LaVell Edwards Stadium, and No. 12 Utah (3-0) travels to Stillwater, Oklahoma to take on No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0).
Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU, KSU, UCF Move Up — Arizona, Kansas Fall
Arizona and UCF both have byes this week. The Wildcats look to regroup after getting blown out on the road to Kansas State (31-7), and UCF will relax and enjoy it’s thrilling 35-34 win over TCU on the road.
This week, the Big 12 has four ranked teams (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Iowa State) in the AP poll with 4 teams (BYU, Arizona, UCF and Arizona State) also receiving votes.
Without further ado, here’s a look at the predictions this week.
Houston (1-2) @ Cincinnati (2-1)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 10:00 a.m. (MT)
TV: FS1
After winning last year’s contest (24-14) in what was the first game between programs as members of the Big 12 Conference, the Bearcats look to keep the streak going.
Cincinnati is currently favored by six points at home and I think they’ll get it done. Houston will keep it close, but the Bearcats will find a way to win.
Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Houston 17
Kansas (1-2) @ West Virginia (1-2)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 10:00 a.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN2
Both teams come into Saturday’s contest at 1-2 and in desperate need of a win as they look to turn their season around and get to a bowl game.
This game is a toss up. West Virginia is favored by 2.5 points, but only because they are playing at home. Currently, both teams seem evenly matched. Even ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor doesn’t know what to do as it gives West Virginia a 51% chance of winning, and 49% for Kansas. West Virginia at least has a decent offense, unlike the turnover prone Jayhawks. Will Kansas QB Jalon Daniels finally rise to the occasion this week? We’ll see, but I’m not planning on it based on what we’ve seen from the team so far this season.
Prediction: West Virginia 27, Kansas 24
Arkansas State (2-1) vs. No. 20 Iowa State (2-0)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 12:00 p.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN+
After a bye week, Iowa State is ready to keep the party going when they take on Arkansas State at home on Saturday. The Cyclones are favored by three touchdowns and I think they’ll do more than that.
Prediction: No. 20 Iowa State 37, Arkansas State 13
Arizona State (3-0) @ Texas Tech (2-1)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 1:30 a.m. (MT)
TV: FS1
Arizona State has had a great run so far, but I don’t think they have the offense to keep up. There’s a reason why Texas Tech is favored by 3 points in this game. The Red Raiders play very well at home and their loss to Washington State doesn’t look so bad considering the Cougars beat rival Washington last week. Give me Texas Tech!
ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor gives Texas Tech a 52% chance of winning, with Arizona State at 48%.
Prediction: Texas Tech 30, Arizona State 24
Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU, KSU, UCF Move Up — Arizona, Kansas Fall
No. 12 Utah (3-0) @ No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 2:00 p.m. (MT)
TV: FOX
This will be a fun one! No. 14 Oklahoma State hosts the first Top 15 showdown in Stillwater since Bedlam in 2021.
Both teams are 3-0 on the season and have been ranked all season. Saturday will be the first meeting between the two programs since they played in Salt Lake City back in 1945. The Cowboys went on to win that game, 46-6.
This will be one of the biggest games in the Big 12 as Utah was picked to win the conference, while Oklahoma State was picked to finish third. Oddsmakers have Utah as a two-point favorite on the road — although that has changed a number of times this week based on what people were hearing about Cam — while ESPN’s FPI gives Oklahoma State a 60% chance of winning.
It sounds like Cam Rising is going to play for Utah. We don’t know if he’s fully recovered or not so it’s hard to say what will happen on Saturday. A healthy Cam Rising should lead Utah to victory, however, it sounds like he’s coming back a bit early and isn’t 100%. For that reason and the rust he’ll need to shake off, I think Oklahoma State can pull off a close win at home.
Prediction: No. 14 Oklahoma State 24, No. 12 Utah 21
TCU (2-1) @ SMU (2-1)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 3:00 p.m. (MT)
TV: The CW Network
TCU is favored by three and will look to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss at home to UCF (35-34) last week. This will be the second Big 12 opponent for SMU as BYU won two weeks ago (18-15) in Dallas, Texas. I expect more scoring in this game and the Horned Frogs to take care of business on the road.
Prediction: TCU 31, SMU 27
Baylor (2-1) @ Colorado (2-1)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 6:00 p.m. (MT)
TV: FOX
Like Kansas-West Virginia, this game is also a toss up as we still don’t know much about either team. As of now, Colorado is favored by two points at home and I’m going to go with the home team in this one. ESPN’s FPI gives Colorado a 56% chance of winning compared to just 44% for Baylor.
Prediction: Colorado 26, Baylor 20
No. 13 Kansas State (3-0) @ BYU (3-0)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 8:30 p.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN
In the words of Lee Corso, ‘not so fast my friend.’
The 13th ranked Wildcats are currently favored by a touchdown over BYU, but I expect the game to be closer than that. LaVell Edwards is a tough place to play and I expect the 63,000+ fans to give the Cougars a nice boost in the Big 12 opener for both teams.
Both Kansas State and BYU have terrific defenses — probably Top 3 in the Big 12 along with Utah — so I expect this to be a low scoring game. I expect some trick plays on offense for BYU to help their stagnant offense, but I think the QB play of Avery Johnson will be the difference and allow the Wildcats to get a close win on the road.
Prediction: No. 13 Kansas State 23, BYU 20
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Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU, KSU, UCF Move Up — Arizona, Kansas Fall
