Here’s to another great week of Big 12 football predictions!
Week five should be another fun one with a full slate of great matchups including No. 23 Kansas State hosting No. 20 Oklahoma State. We also have UCF (3-0) taking on Colorado (3-1) as the Knights host FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday. UCF looks to take that spotlight and make a statement as the Knights are just one of four undefeated teams left in the Big 12 — No. 22 BYU (4-0), No 18 Iowa State (3-0) and No. 10 Utah (4-0).
The 22nd ranked Cougars look to get their first road win over Baylor (2-2) at McLane Stadium after coming up short the two previous times (2021 and 1983). Utah will host a streaky Arizona team that looked great until they ran into Kansas State two weeks ago. TCU and Kansas will fight for their first conference win and Cincinnati and Texas Tech will duke it out in a battle of 3-1 teams.
Big 12 Football Power Rankings: BYU, Utah Top 2 — KSU, OSU Fall (Week 5)
So far on the year I’m 40-12, after going 5-3 last week (thanks for losing TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State) and going 10-3 the previous week. Hopefully this week will be better as the perfect week still evades me.
With regards to poll implications, the Big 12 now has 5 teams ranked with BYU jumping into the Top 25, joining Utah, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. The conference also has two teams (UCF, Arizona) that are receiving votes.
Arizona State and West Virginia both have byes this week. The Sun Devils look to regroup after losing to Texas Tech on the road and West Virginia gets to enjoy it’s last second home victory over Kansas.
Without further ado, here’s a look at the predictions this week.
No. 23 Kansas State (3-1, 0-1) vs. Oklahoma State (3-1, 0-1)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 10:00 a.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN
Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State are coming off disappointing losses in which both teams were outmatched by BYU and Utah. What appeared to be a possible Top 10 showdown between both teams two weeks ago is now a battle of who is going to fall out of Top 25 next week and more importantly, who is going to be two games back in the Big 12 title chase.
Based on what I’ve seen so far this year, Kansas State appears to be the stronger team and oddsmakers think the same as the Wildcats are five-point favorites at home. Oklahoma State benched their starting QB last game so the Cowboys have a lot to figure out before Saturday.
For these reasons, and with Kansas State playing at home, I think the Wildcats will cover the spread. Utah gashed the Cowboys running the ball and that plays right into Kansas State’s strength.
Prediction: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma State 20
No. 22 BYU (4-0, 1-0) @ Baylor (2-2, 0-1)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 10:00 a.m. (MT)
TV: FS1
I’m still in shock in what BYU did to then-No. 13 Kansas State on Saturday as the Cougars scored on offense, defense and special teams for the first time since 1996. Ironically enough, the Cougars were wearing throwback uniforms from the 1996 team.
Hey Tom Holmoe, can the Cougars keep playing in those jerseys?
Saturday’s game is an early morning start for the Cougars with kickoff time at 10 AM (MT). The Cougars haven’t played well in early morning/day games over the past few years which is why I believe this game will come down to the wire. I give the edge to the Cougars in this one as they are playing well and Baylor is still figuring things out.
BYU wins and Cougar fans can rest easy during General Conference next week.
Prediction: BYU 23, Baylor 20
No. 22 BYU vs. Baylor: Preview, Prediction And Betting Lines
TCU (2-2, 0-1) @ Kansas (1-3, 0-1)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 1:30 p.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN+
This game is a toss up.
We don’t know anything about these teams 4 games into the season. Well… one thing — they’ve both massively failed preseason expectations.
Kansas play decent last week against West Virginia, meanwhile, TCU got roasted by SMU 66-42. With Kansas playing at home, I’ll go with the Jayhawks in this one. Oddsmakers also have Kansas favored by 1.5 and ESPN’s FPI gives Kansas a 60% chance of winning.
Prediction: Kansas 24, TCU 23
Colorado (3-1, 1-0) @ UCF (3-0, 1-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 1:30 p.m. (MT)
TV: FOX
Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff is coming to Orlando, Florida this weekend and I expect UCF to put on a show against Colorado. The Knights are coming off a bye week and will be well rested.
UCF is favored by two touchdowns and I expect this to be a high scoring affair between two great offenses. However, Colorado defense isn’t very good so I don’t think Colorado can pull off an upset here. Deion Sanders will bring eyeballs, but I expect he’ll be taking an L when the final seconds tick off the clock.
ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor gives UCF an 82% chance of winning. It should be higher than that, in my opinion.
Prediction: UCF 37, Colorado 24
No. 18 Iowa State (3-0, 0-0) @ Houston (1-3, 0-1)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 5:00 p.m. (MT)
TV: FS1
This is a game you can skip as Houston looks to be the Big 12’s worst team this year. Iowa State looks like a Big 12 contender and when you put it altogether, I expect a blowout on Saturday.
Iowa State is favored by two touchdowns but they should easily cover that.
Prediction: No. 18 Iowa State 30, Houston 10
Big 12 Football Power Rankings: BYU, Utah Top 2 — KSU, OSU Fall (Week 5)
Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0) @ Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 6:00 p.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN2
Saturday’s contest will be a battle of 3-1 teams as both look to take another step forward this year after disappointing seasons a year ago. Both teams looked good last week and I expect a close game in what appears to be two evenly matched teams.
With Texas Tech playing at home, I’m giving the nudge to the Raid Raiders in this one.
Oddsmakers have the Raid Raiders as a 3-point favorite with ESPN’s FPI giving them a 58% chance of winning too.
Prediction: Texas Tech 30, Cincinnati 23
Arizona (2-1, 0-0) @ No. 10 Utah (4-0, 1-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 8:15 p.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN
The last Big 12 game of the night belongs to Arizona-Utah as the Utes look to keep their undefeated season alive inside Rice-Eccles Stadium, one of the hardest places to win in all of college football. I don’t see that changing anytime soon as Arizona looks overmatched on both sides of the ball.
Arizona looked good before getting blown out at Kansas State (31-7). The bye week and extra time to prep will help keep it somewhat close, but there’s no upset in this win.
Utah look very good against then-No. 14 Oklahoma State in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Expect the same Saturday night.
Prediction: No. 10 Utah 28, Arizona 14
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Big 12 Football Power Rankings: BYU, Utah Top 2 — KSU, OSU Fall (Week 5)
