Will BYU finish the college football season as a Top 10 team?
With most of the college football bowl games now over, it’s time to start looking ahead at what the final AP Poll will look like.
For BYU players, coaches, and fans, the final AP poll is significant as the Cougars have not finished inside the Top 10 since the 1996 season when Steve Sarkisian led BYU to a 14-1 record and a No. 5 ranking. The other two times the Cougars finished inside the Top 10 was in 1983 (No. 7) and 1984 (No. 1).
This year, the Cougars finished with an impressive 11-2 record, despite just their second year playing in a P4 Conference. Facing a program-record 11 power conference opponents in 2024, the Cougars won nine of those, setting another record for wins over P4 teams in what was an unforgettable season. The 11-win total also marks just the 13th time the Cougars have won 11+ games in the past 100 seasons.
Thanks to preseason expectations where the Cougars were expected to finish 13th in the Big 12, BYU and the Big 12 Conference were disrespected the entire season due to earlier narratives that the SEC and Big Ten Conferences were head and shoulders above the rest. But as we’ve seen throughout the bowl season, those conferences aren’t as special as people made them out to be — especially the SEC.
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This, combined with so many upsets and blowouts of Top 25 teams, means there is going to be a big shakeup when the final AP Poll is released on Jan. 21.
BYU, which is currently ranked 17th in both the AP Poll and Playoff Rankings, could likely finish Top 10 based on all the chaos over the past two weeks.
In fact, the BYU football program finds itself in a unique situation thanks to the expanded playoff and how things are set up nowadays. We’ll see how much weight the bowl games and playoff games matter for voters.
Typically, teams in the Top 15 have dropped an average of 2-3 spots after bowl losses, and the two teams that played in the championship game stayed 1-2 — no matter the final score. Will voters do the same? Will voters punish teams less for those that play in the quarterfinal and semifinal games compared to the first-round games? There’s no precedent as this is the first year, however, my guess is that voters will treat the first round games closer to regular season games — meaning teams will drop a bit more after a loss than teams who lose in the quarterfinals and semifinals.
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When it comes to BYU, the Cougars are ranked No. 17 in the AP Poll and the CFP rankings. Of the 10 teams that are directly ahead of them, nine of them have lost (Nos: 7-15). Those teams were either blown out, or they were massive double-digit favorites that ended up losing.
BYU has been under-ranked all season and with the perception change of the Big 12 thanks to Arizona State taking Texas to double overtime in the quarterfinals, I think BYU and other Big 12 teams will get an extra boost when the final rankings are released.
There’s no doubt that the Big Ten is the strongest conference this year. The SEC and Big 12 appear to be about the same, while the ACC is a distant fourth. Taking this into consideration, here’s a recap of the bowl games for each team and below is my prediction of where BYU will end up in the final AP Poll.
Current AP Top 25 Rankings
No. 7 Tennessee — The Vols got blown out by Ohio State on the road (42-17) in the first round game. The Vols got a late touchdown with under two minutes to go to make it less embarrassing. A blowout loss like that typically drops teams 7-8 spots, however, because of the favoritism that SEC teams receive, combined with Ohio State blowing out Oregon, I expect the Vols to only drop 3 spots (No. 10).
No. 8 Boise State — The Broncos lost 31-14 to Penn State, however, the game was within striking distance as Boise State was down just 10 points for much of the second half. With Oregon’s blowout loss to Ohio State, the Broncos close loss doesn’t look as good anymore. Having said that, I think voters won’t punish quarterfinal games as much as the first round games and for that, I think Boise State will only drop 3-4 spots (Nos. 11-12).
No. 9 Indiana — The Hoosiers were embarrassed in the first game of the inaugural 12-team College football Playoff as Notre Dame rolled to a 27-17 victory. The score doesn’t indicate how much of a blowout it was as Indiana was down 27-3 with less than two minutes to go in the game. The blowout even got Kirk Herbstreit to say that Indiana didn’t belong, which drew national attention. People will remember that. Since Indiana is part of the Big 10 they won’t drop as much as other teams would and will likely be around 13-14. I personally think they should drop 8-10 spots, as all of their wins this year are against sub-par teams. When they’ve played good/decent teams, they’ve been blown out.
No. 10 Arizona State — The Sun Devils proved they belonged and helped change the narrative around the Big 12 Conference. Arizona State outplayed Texas and should have won the game, before falling in double overtime. When it comes to rankings, despite the loss, I think ASU will move up a couple spots just because they went toe-to-toe with Texas. Everyone around them has lost and most were by double digits too. With everyone talking about how ASU outplayed Texas in every part of the game, combined with the blown targeting call against Texas — in which ASU would have likely won in regulation — I think ASU will move up a couple spots.
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No. 11 Alabama — The Crimson Tide came in as 17-point favorites over a Michigan team that came in with a 7-5 record. With all the talk about Alabama “deserving” a spot in the college football playoff, the Crimson Tide were embarrassed in a 19-13 loss. They should drop 6-7 spots after that performance, however, because of the favoritism that SEC teams receive, I expect them to only drop 3-4 spots (Nos. 14-15).
No. 12 SMU — The Mustangs got rocked in the first round of the College Football Playoff as Penn State rolled to a 38-10 victory at home. The game wasn’t even close. SMU won’t get any favoritism as a member of the ACC — which is 2-10 in bowl games this year — so I expect them to drop 5-6 spots (Nos. 17-18).
No. 13 Clemson — The Tigers finished the season at 10-4 after losing to Texas 38-24. I see Clemson dropping 3-4 spots (Nos. 16-17) and landing just ahead of SMU — who they beat in the ACC title game. With the ACC’s dismal 2-10 bowl record, no ACC team will be getting the benefit of the doubt.
No. 14 South Carolina — The Gamecocks came in as 10-point favorites over No. 21 Illinois, and were one of the teams that got the most attention for the last playoff spot. South Carolina proved they weren’t worthy as they lost 21-17 to the Fighting Illini. With four losses, I expect them to drop 5-6 spots (No. 19-20), with many voters likely putting Illinois ahead of them now due to the head-to-head result.
No. 15 Miami — Who could forget the Pop Tarts Bowl! Miami dropped a heartbreaking game as Iowa State stormed back to win 42-41. Miami star QB Cam Ward sat out the second half which got plenty of national attention. Because of that and the close loss, I see Miami staying at No. 15.
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No. 16 Ole Miss — The Rebels came in as big favorites over Duke (9-4), and made sure to make a statement. After clamoring that his team deserved a playoff spot, Lane Kiffen and Ole Miss delivered on that message with a 52-20 thumping of Duke. Like BYU, I think both teams will move up 7-8 spots with Ole Miss jumping into the Top 10.
No. 17 BYU — The Cougars dominated No. 23 Colorado Saturday night in the Alamo Bowl and got plenty of national attention with the statement win. Social media was buzzing as to why the Cougars didn’t get a playoff invite or at least be in the conversation like Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss were. With Colorado boasting two of the Top 3 picks in the NFL Draft and the Heisman Trophy winner (Travis Hunter) I expect the Cougars to move up 7-8 spots due to the win, combined with the teams in front of them that lost. Look for BYU to be in the 9-10 range in the final poll. It also helped that the Alamo Bowl set a TV viewership record so everyone saw BYU’s domination.
No. 18 Iowa State — The Cyclones barely won and did so without Miami quarterback Cam Ward playing in the second half. I still expect Iowa State to move up a couple spots due to the win and land around the 13-15 range. While the Cyclones beat a higher ranked team than BYU, their come-from-behind performance won’t impress voters enough to put them ahead of the Cougars. Arizona State’s close loss to Texas — despite outplaying them — helped change the narrative around the Big 12 which will positively impact the rankings at the end of the year. BYU and Iowa State have been under-ranked the entire year and voters should adjust for that.
AP Poll Top 25 Final Rankings (Projection)
No. 1 Ohio State (12-2) — (favored… expected to play in title game)
No. 2 Notre Dame (13-1) — (favored… expected to play in title game)
No. 3 Penn State (13-2) — (expected to lose in CFP semifinals)
No. 4 Texas (13-2) — (expected to lose in CFP semifinals)
No. 5 Oregon (13-1) — Drop 4 spots
No. 6 Georgia (11-3) — Drop 4 spots
No. 7 Arizona State (11-3) — Up 3 spots
No. 8 Ole Miss (10-3) — Up 8 spots
No. 9 BYU (11-2) — Up 8 spots
No. 10 Tennessee (10-3) — Drop 3 spots
No. 11 Boise State (12-2) — Drop 3 spots
No. 12 Iowa State (11-3) — Up 6 spots
No. 13 Indiana (11-2) — Drop 4 spots
No. 14 Alabama (9-4) — Drop 3 spots
No. 15 Miami (10-3) — No movement
No. 16 Clemson (10-4) — Drop 3 spots
No. 17 SMU (11-3) — Drop 5 spots
No. 18 Illinois (10-3) — Up 3 spots
No. 19 Army (12-1) — No movement
No. 20 South Carolina (9-4) — Drop 6 spots
No. 21 Syracuse (10-3) — Up 1 spot
No. 22 Missouri (10-3) — Up 1 spot
No. 23 Memphis (11-2) — Up 2 spots
No. 24 UNLV (11-3) — No movement
No. 25 Kansas State — NR
Best Case Scenario: Voters adjust their bias of the Big 12 conference and give teams like BYU, Arizona State and Iowa State an extra boost to make up for under-ranking them all season. Best case for BYU is a Top 10 ranking with the Cougars jumping 7+ spots. The Cougars have a Top 10 resume and currently have a SOR rating of 7, so while a 7+ move seems high, the Cougars deserve it after being under-ranked all season.
What Likely Happens: Unfortunately, pollsters, for whatever reason, don’t watch a lot of games and will only look at box scores — if even that. Polls are a popularity contest and because of that blue blood programs will continue to be protected at all costs. Expect BYU to move up 5 spots and land around 12.
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