BYU opens Big 12 play hosting No. 13 Kansas State at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday.
The game will be the ninth time in the series that BYU and Kansas State have faced off. The series is tied 4-4 with the last matchup being the 1997 Cotton Bowl where No. 5 BYU took down No. 14 Kansas State 19-15. Steve Sarkisian, now the head coach at Texas, threw for 291 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Cougars are 3-0 at home and the Wildcats are 4-0 at home.
Will BYU keep the home field advantage going in the series, or will Kansas State finally break the streak?
Let’s dig in.
Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU, KSU, UCF Move Up — Arizona, Kansas Fall
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 8:30 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN
Announcers: Dave Flemming, Brock Osweiler, Stormy Buonantony
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium (62,073) — Provo, Utah
All-Time Results
Both programs are undefeated at home in the series with Kansas State at 4-0 and BYU at 3-0. The Cougars are also 1-0 on a neutral field (1997 Cotton Bowl).
No. 5 BYU 19, No. 14 Kansas State 15 (1997)
BYU 39, Kansas State 0 (1977)
Kansas State 13, BYU 3 (1976)
BYU 32, Kansas State 9 (1972)
Kansas State 23, BYU 7 (1971)
BYU 21, Kansas State 3 (1965)
Kansas State 24, BYU 7 (1963)
Kansas State 36, BYU 7 (1957)
Betting Lines
The Spread: Kansas State -6.5
Money Line: Kansas State -250, BYU +200
Over/Under: 48.5
When betting lines first opened, Kansas State was a 7.5-point favorite which has now dropped to 6.5. The over/under opened at 50.5 and has since dropped to 48.5. In regards to the money line, oddsmakers are favoring Kansas State at -250 with BYU at +200. The money line simply involves picking the winning team. With Kansas State at -250, those picking the Wildcats would have to risk $250 to win $100. However, for those picking the Cougars, one would win $200 for his/her $100 wager.
SP+, a predictive analytics tool created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, has Kansas State beating BYU 32-23. So far this year, SP+ is 2-1 in its BYU picks. Bill gives BYU just a 27% chance of beating the Wildcats, which is similar to ESPN’s Football Power Index. As of right now, the FPI gives BYU a 30% chance of beating Kansas State.
BYU vs. Kansas State Preview
A late-night battle of unbeaten Big 12 teams, what more could you want on a late Saturday night.
The Cougars come with a 3-0 record and a pair of road victories (SMU and Wyoming). Meanwhile, No. 13 Kansas State is also 3-0 and is coming off an impressive 31-7 home victory over then-No. 20 Arizona.
BYU is led by quarterback Jake Retzlaff who is both the team’s leading passer and runner thanks to injuries from BYU’s top two running backs. The dual-threat quarterback has thrown for 841 yards and seven touchdowns, to go along with 113 yards rushing (4.7 avg.). The biggest issue with Retzlaff is that he’s turnover prone, but if he can take care of the ball, the Cougars have a great shot at knocking off Kansas State.
On the other side of the ball is Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson, who is even more of a dual-threat quarterback than Retzlaff is. Johnson ran wild in the win over Arizona as the sophomore racked up 110 yards rushing on 17 carries. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound quarterback is averaging nearly 7 yards per carry, however, he hasn’t done very much through the air as he’s failed to throw more than 200 yards in any game this season. Johnson has thrown for just 490 yards, but has a great touchdown (6) to interception (1) ratio so far this season.
Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU, KSU, UCF Move Up — Arizona, Kansas Fall
The keys to the game for BYU is exploiting the Kansas State secondary that got thrashed against Tulane as the Green Wave totaled 491 yards of offense, including 342 yards through the air. Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah reminds me a lot like Retzlaff as he prefers to throw first, but can take off and run if he needs to. One of BYU’s biggest strengths this year is at the wide receiver (Chase Roberts, Kody Epps, Keelan Marion, Darius Lassiter, Jojo Phillips) and tight end positions (Keanu Hill, Mata’ava Ta’ase and Ryner Swanson).
I would expect the Cougar offense to have a similar game plan to spread Kansas State out which will open up the run game. BYU’s rushing offense has been below average average so far this season, so less people in the box should open up some running lanes and opportunities.
For Kansas State, the keys to the game will be to stop BYU’s passing attack and then on offense to keep its potent rushing attack going. The Wildcats are averaging 244 yards per game and seven yards per carry and will go up against a stout front seven for BYU which is allowing just over three yards per carry so far this season.
The Cougars haven’t been tested heavily yet, but they fly around to the ball and play assignment sound. BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill has turned the defense around since he got to BYU last year and is not afraid to bring pressure and put quarterbacks in obvious passing situations on third down.
Prediction: Kansas State 23, BYU 20
There’s something special about night games at LaVell Edwards Stadium as the Cougars have been terrific over the years… including games against ranked opponents the last few years (Baylor, Utah, Arizona State, Boise State, etc.).
BYU head coach Kalani Sitake knows how to get his guys up for big games, especially early on in the season where the Cougars have had a lot of success knocking off ranked opponents. It’s towards the end of the season where BYU has struggled due to it’s lack of depth.
Meanwhile, Kansas State looked mightily impressive in its blowout win over then-No. 20 Arizona. The Wildcats look like the real deal and should be the favorites to win the Big 12, barring any major injuries.
I expect LaVell Edwards Stadium to be rocking all night in what is the largest Stadium in the Big 12. Both teams will be fired up to open Big 12 play and I expect the game to come down to the wire.
I’m giving Kansas State the edge here as I don’t fully trust the BYU offense to score enough points and to not turn the ball over. I think both defenses will play well and BYU will cover, but I expect Kansas State to walk out with a nail-biting win.
Notes: BYU will take the field Saturday donning the white with royal trim, black drop-shadowed version of the threads worn by the Steve Sarkisian-led Cougars in 1996-97. With the team wearing white for the home game, including all-white pants with no stripe in the style of the 1996 uniforms, fans are asked to wear white for the game as well. BYU will honor members of the 1996-97 team at the game.
Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU, KSU, UCF Move Up — Arizona, Kansas Fall
