BYU (3-4) takes on Utah State (4-3) in the Battle for the Old Wagon Wheel Saturday night at Maverik Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 8 p.m.
Utah State is coming off its second loss in three games and would love nothing more than to get back to its winning ways with a win over its instate rival at home.
Meanwhile, the Cougars look to right the ship against the Aggies after losing two consecutive games in the series by double digits. The last time BYU lost three or more consecutive games in the series was back in 1971-74, when the Cougars lost four in a row.
The Cougars are coming off its second bye week of the season and you can bet players and coaches have been counting down the days as they look at ending the Aggies streak. The problem for the Cougars has been showing up for games after a bye week. In fact, BYU has lost its last three games (Utah State, Northern Illinois and South Florida) when coming off a bye. Is the fourth time the charm?
With wins over Tennessee, USC and Boise State, the Cougars have followed it up with embarrassing losses to Toledo and South Florida. The up and down Jekyll and Hyde season has left fans and oddsmakers perplexed and wondering which team is going to show up on Saturday.
That is why the Cougars — which are coming off a big win over No. 14 Boise State on Homecoming night — still head to Logan as an underdog against the Aggies. Sportsbooks first released lines which had Utah State as a touchdown favorite over BYU. However, as the week has gone on, that line has continued to drop as Utah State is now favored by just three points points.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: 8:05 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN2
Announcers: Jason Benetti, Rod Gilmore, Quint Kessenich
Location: Maverik Stadium (25,100) — Logan, Utah
Betting Line
The Spread: Utah State -3
Over/Under: 50.5
Money Line: Utah State -165, BYU +145
Key Matchup
For BYU, the biggest question right now is who is going to be the starting quarterback on Saturday. Both Jaren Hall and Baylor Romney played well in their first career starts over the past two games and both are healthy and ready to go this week.
Hall was the No. 2 guy before being sidelined with concussion symptoms near the end of the South Florida game, however, Romney looked pretty good and helped lead BYU past then-No. 14 Boise State last week. While a starter hasn’t been named publicly yet, the common assumption is that Hall is the guy if he’s healthy.
Both will likely see playing time so no matter who starts, BYU fans should feel confident going into Logan with two skilled quarterbacks. And based on what has happened in the series over the past decade — knock on wood it doesn’t happen again — BYU is probably going to need both quarterbacks.
The biggest key for BYU is taking advantage of Utah State’s poor run defense. The Aggies gave up 448 yards rushing last week to Air Force and are giving up an average of 181 yards per game on the ground and 235 yards through the air. Look for the BYU coaching staff to try and run some option plays to test the Aggie defense early and if they can’t stop it, expect the Cougars to continue to run more of it throughout the game.
For Utah State, the Aggies came into the season with high expectations, and at 4-3 have certainly underachieved so far this season. With a new coaching staff, a new offensive line and finding new weapons at the skill positions, star quarterback Jordan Love has struggled this season.
The 6-foot-4 junior has thrown just eight touchdowns to go with nine interceptions so far this year. In the past two seasons, Love has combined to throw 40 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. The Aggies will need to break out of its current passing game slump in order to beat BYU as Utah State is averaging just under 150 yards passing in its last three games. If the passing game can get going and can spread the Cougars out, the Aggies will be able to take advantage of BYU’s lack of rush defense as the Cougars rank among the worst in the nation, giving up just over 215 yards per game.
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Notes
Getting Healthy: The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for BYU as the Cougars were missing a number of key players in the game against Boise State and could get a few of those guys back, including running back Emmanuel Esukpa and multiple players on the offensive line. There is a chance that defensive backs Troy Warner and Chris Wilcox — who have both yet to play this season due to injuries — could see some time as they are still eligible to play in four games without burning their redshirts.
The Old Wagon Wheel: BYU and Utah State will be playing for the 89th time on Saturday. The Cougars hold a 48-37-3 record in the overall series dating back to 1922. BYU has only played more games against one other opponent (Utah) than the Aggies and are 17-19-2 at Utah State. BYU holds a 6-4 advantage in the last 10 meetings and is 2-2 in Logan during that stretch.
Tough Schedule. According to the Jeff Sagarin ratings on USA Today, BYU has played the 7th toughest schedule in college football through seven games. BYU’s opponents have gone a combined 55-39 to date. The Cougars have also faced four ranked teams this year.
The Century Mark: Matt Bushman hit the 100-receiving yard mark for the first time in his career with five catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Boise State. It was the third 100-yard game by a BYU player this season (Micah Simon, Aleva Hifo). It is the first time a BYU tight end had 100 yards since Kaneakua Friel had six catches for 101 yards
and two scores against Washington State in 2012.
200+ Passing Yards: BYU has passed for 200+ yards in every game this year. Including the final two games of 2018, the Cougars have gone for 200+ in nine straight games, the longest streak since BYU had 10 in a row spanning nine games in 2015 and the first game of 2016.
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Prediction: BYU 30, Utah State 27
It will be interesting to see how the BYU coaching staff handles the game as they made several changes on both sides of the ball against Boise State in what felt like a desperation game for the coaching staff. For once this season, the defense brought pressure which forced the Broncos into penalties and negative plays. Will the coaching staff continue to pull out all the stops to get another win, or will they go back to playing it safe now that their backs aren’t up against the wall?
At the end of the day, I’m taking BYU and the points in this one as both defenses haven’t shown the ability to really shut opponents down this season. I’m expecting a really close game as the Aggies always seem to get up to play BYU. Playing at home will certainly give Utah State a boost, but in the end, I think the Cougars will do just enough to squeak out another win in back-to-back games.
