How many Big 12 football teams could land in the Top 10 when the when the final AP Poll is released this week?
The answer may surprise you.
The perception around the Big 12 has dramatically improved after Arizona State went toe-to-toe with Texas in the Peach Bowl — a quarterfinal game as part of the College Football Playoff. In addition, BYU and Iowa State both got Top-25 bowl wins showing just how talented and deep the conference was this year.
It also helped that the “mighty” SEC fell flat on their face as the conference only had one member in the CFP semifinals — Texas — which until this year, was a member of the Big 12 for the past 28 years. The ACC, which had two teams in the CFP compared to just one for the Big 12, proceeded to go 2-11 in bowl games this year, exposing just how overrated the ACC was this year. The Big 12 was robbed with just one playoff spot, but at this point, it’s too late to do anything about it.
But that makes the upcoming AP Poll so interesting with the new playoff format.
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Because of preseason polls and expectations, conferences are judged on their top “preseason teams.” In the Big 12, the four-way champions were Arizona State, which was picked to finish last (16th), BYU was picked to finish 13th, Colorado 11th, and Iowa State sixth. This resulted in the Big 12 Conference getting a lot of disrespect throughout the season because the Big 12 preseason favorites — Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona — all finished near the bottom of the conference.
That combined with all the bluebloods and money in the Big Ten and SEC Conferences now, only cemented the early narrative that those two conferences were head and shoulders above everyone else. But as we’ve seen throughout the bowl season, those conferences aren’t as special as people made them out to be — especially the SEC.
Big 12: AP Top 25 Poll
Arizona State, which was ranked No. 10 in the AP Poll before the playoffs began, will likely move up a couple spots due to blowout losses by Tennessee, Boise State, and Indiana. The game had the entire nation talking and with the close overtime loss, in which the Sun Devils outplayed the Longhorns in every aspect of the game. That should be enough for ASU to move up a couple spots.
If so, Arizona State will have its first Top-10 ranking in the final AP Poll since 1996 when the Sun Devils finished the season ranked No. 6 with an 11-1 record. Their only loss was a heartbreaking 20-17 defeat to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. A Top-10 finish would also be the eighth time in program history that the Sun Devils have finished ranked in the Top 10.
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BYU, the next Big 12 team in the rankings, is currently No. 17 in both the AP Poll and Playoff Rankings. The Cougars could very well finish Top 10 based on all the chaos over the past three weeks. In fact, the BYU football program finds itself in a unique situation thanks to the expanded playoff and how things are set up nowadays. We’ll see how much weight the bowl games and playoff games matter for voters.
Typically, teams in the Top 15 have dropped an average of 2-3 spots after bowl losses, and the two teams that played in the championship game stayed 1-2 — no matter the final score. Will voters do the same? Will voters punish teams less for those that play in the quarterfinal and semifinal games compared to the first-round games? There’s no precedent as this is the first year, however, my guess is that voters will treat the first round games closer to regular season games — meaning teams will drop a bit more after a loss than teams who lose in the quarterfinals and semifinals.
The Cougars haven’t finished inside the Top 10 since the 1996 season as well. Quarterback Steve Sarkisian — now the head coach at Texas — led BYU to a 14-1 record and a No. 5 ranking in the final AP Poll. The other two times the Cougars finished inside the Top 10 was in 1983 (No. 7) and 1984 (No. 1).
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Iowa State is right behind BYU at No. 18 in the AP Poll. The Cyclones have finished the season ranked just three times in program history. Iowa State finished No. 9 in 2020, No. 19 in 1976, and No. 25 in 2000. Iowa State also looks to jump into the Top 10 for just the second time in program history. With nearly every team losing in front of them, the Cyclones have a chance after a 42-41 win over No. 13 Miami in the Pop Tarts Bowl.
Kansas State is currently outside the Top 25 and is technically 29th overall. – I expect the Wildcats to move back into the Top 25 as Kansas State rallied for an improbable 44-41 victory of Rutgers in the Rate Bowl. That, combined with several teams losing which were just in front of them (Texas A&M, Duke), in addition to BYU’s blowout win over Colorado, should be enough for Kansas State to get in. If so, that will make it the 16th time that the Wildcats have finished the season with a Top 25 ranking.
The not so good news for the Big 12 is that Kansas State’s gain is Colorado’s loss as the Buffaloes got smoked by BYU in the Alamo Bowl, 36-14. The Buffs came in ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll, but I fully expect the blowout loss will knock them out.
Kansas State should take their place which will give the Big 12 conference four teams in the final AP Poll. And most importantly, a lot of momentum and favorable preseason rankings when the AP preseason poll is released in August.
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Current AP Top 25 Rankings
The Big 12 won’t have any teams in the Top 6, so we’ll skip to the range (7-18) where all the movement will take place.
No. 7 Tennessee — The Vols got blown out by Ohio State on the road (42-17) in the first round game. The Vols got a late touchdown with under two minutes to go to make it less embarrassing. A blowout loss like that typically drops teams 7-8 spots, however, because of the favoritism that SEC teams receive, combined with Ohio State making its way to the title game, I expect the Vols to only drop 3 spots (No. 10).
No. 8 Boise State — The Broncos lost 31-14 to Penn State, however, the game was within striking distance as Boise State was down just 10 points for much of the second half. With Oregon’s blowout loss to Ohio State, the Broncos close loss doesn’t look as good anymore. Having said that, I think voters won’t punish quarterfinal games as much as the first round games and for that, I think Boise State will only drop 3-4 spots (Nos. 11-12).
No. 9 Indiana — The Hoosiers were embarrassed in the first game of the inaugural 12-team College football Playoff as Notre Dame rolled to a 27-17 victory. The score doesn’t indicate how much of a blowout it was as Indiana was down 27-3 with less than two minutes to go in the game. The blowout even got Kirk Herbstreit to say that Indiana didn’t belong, which drew national attention. People will remember that. Since Indiana is part of the Big 10 they won’t drop as much as other teams would and will likely be around 13-14. I personally think they should drop 8-10 spots, as all of their wins this year are against sub-par teams. When they’ve played good/decent teams, they’ve been blown out.
No. 10 Arizona State — The Sun Devils proved they belonged and helped change the narrative around the Big 12 Conference. Arizona State outplayed Texas and should have won the game, before falling in double overtime. When it comes to rankings, despite the loss, I think ASU will move up a couple spots just because they went toe-to-toe with Texas. Everyone around them has lost, and most were by double digits too. With everyone talking about how ASU outplayed Texas in every part of the game, combined with the blown targeting call against Texas — in which ASU would have likely won in regulation — I think ASU will move up a couple spots.
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No. 11 Alabama — The Crimson Tide came in as 17-point favorites over a Michigan team that came in with a 7-5 record. With all the talk about Alabama “deserving” a spot in the college football playoff, the Crimson Tide were embarrassed in a 19-13 loss. They should drop 6-7 spots after that performance, however, because of the favoritism that SEC teams receive, I expect them to only drop 3-4 spots (Nos. 14-15).
No. 12 SMU — The Mustangs got rocked in the first round of the College Football Playoff as Penn State rolled to a 38-10 victory at home. The game wasn’t even close. SMU won’t get any favoritism as a member of the ACC — which is 2-10 in bowl games this year — so I expect them to drop 5-6 spots (Nos. 17-18).
No. 13 Clemson — The Tigers finished the season at 10-4 after losing to Texas 38-24. I see Clemson dropping 3-4 spots (Nos. 16-17) and landing just ahead of SMU — who they beat in the ACC title game. With the ACC’s dismal 2-10 bowl record, no ACC team will be getting the benefit of the doubt.
No. 14 South Carolina — The Gamecocks came in as 10-point favorites over No. 21 Illinois, and were one of the teams that got the most attention for the last playoff spot. South Carolina proved they weren’t worthy as they lost 21-17 to the Fighting Illini. With four losses, I expect them to drop 5-6 spots (No. 19-20), with many voters likely putting Illinois ahead of them now due to the head-to-head result.
No. 15 Miami — Who could forget the Pop Tarts Bowl! Miami dropped a heartbreaking game as Iowa State stormed back to win 42-41. Miami star QB Cam Ward sat out the second half which got plenty of national attention. Because of that and the close loss, I see Miami staying at No. 15.
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No. 16 Ole Miss — The Rebels came in as big favorites over Duke (9-4), and made sure to make a statement. After clamoring that his team deserved a playoff spot, Lane Kiffen and Ole Miss delivered on that message with a 52-20 thumping of Duke. Like BYU, I think both teams will move up 7-8 spots with Ole Miss jumping into the Top 10.
No. 17 BYU — The Cougars dominated No. 23 Colorado Saturday night in the Alamo Bowl and got plenty of national attention with the statement win. Social media was buzzing as to why the Cougars didn’t get a playoff invite or at least be in the conversation like Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss were. With Colorado boasting two of the Top 3 picks in the NFL Draft and the Heisman Trophy winner (Travis Hunter) I expect the Cougars to move up 7-8 spots due to the win, combined with the teams in front of them that lost. Look for BYU to be in the 9-10 range in the final poll. It also helped that the Alamo Bowl set a TV viewership record so everyone saw BYU’s domination.
No. 18 Iowa State — The Cyclones barely won and did so without Miami quarterback Cam Ward playing in the second half. I still expect Iowa State to move up a couple spots due to the win and land around the 13-15 range. While the Cyclones beat a higher ranked team than BYU, their come-from-behind performance won’t impress voters enough to put them ahead of the Cougars. Arizona State’s close loss to Texas — despite outplaying them — helped change the narrative around the Big 12 which will positively impact the rankings at the end of the year. BYU and Iowa State have been under-ranked the entire year and voters should adjust for that.
AP Poll Top 25 Final Rankings (Projection)
No. 1 Ohio State (13-2) — (favored… expected to win the title game)
No. 2 Notre Dame (14-1) — (expected to lose the title game)
No. 3 Penn State (13-3) — Up 3 spots
No. 4 Texas (13-3) — Up 1 spot
No. 5 Oregon (13-1) — Drop 4 spots
No. 6 Georgia (11-3) — Drop 4 spots
No. 7 Arizona State (11-3) — Up 3 spots
No. 8 Ole Miss (10-3) — Up 8 spots
No. 9 BYU (11-2) — Up 8 spots
No. 10 Tennessee (10-3) — Drop 3 spots
No. 11 Boise State (12-2) — Drop 3 spots
No. 12 Iowa State (11-3) — Up 6 spots
No. 13 Indiana (11-2) — Drop 4 spots
No. 14 Alabama (9-4) — Drop 3 spots
No. 15 Miami (10-3) — No movement
No. 16 Clemson (10-4) — Drop 3 spots
No. 17 SMU (11-3) — Drop 5 spots
No. 18 Illinois (10-3) — Up 3 spots
No. 19 Army (12-1) — No movement
No. 20 South Carolina (9-4) — Drop 6 spots
No. 21 Syracuse (10-3) — Up 1 spot
No. 22 Missouri (10-3) — Up 1 spot
No. 23 Memphis (11-2) — Up 2 spots
No. 24 UNLV (11-3) — No movement
No. 25 Kansas State — NR
I would hope and expect voters to adjust their bias of the Big 12 conference and give teams like BYU, Arizona State, Iowa State and Kansas State an extra boost to make up for under-ranking them all season. For example, while BYU jumping 7-8 spots might seem excessive, the Cougars have a Top 10 resume and currently have a SOR rating of 7. So while a 7+ move seems high, the Cougars and other Big 12 teams deserve the extra boost after being under-ranked all season.
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