Egor Demin has a tough decision to make.
The 6-foot-9 freshman sensation from Moscow, Russia just finished his first year at BYU, leading the Cougars to a Sweet 16 appearance for the first since the Jimmer Fredette years (2011).
Coming into the season, many expected and predicted that Demin would be a 1-and-done player with so many mock drafts putting him in the Top 10, including several as a Top 5 pick as the season started.
However, after struggling during much of Big 12 play — with a plethora of turnovers and poor shooting performances, Demin has slid down on many mock drafts and has settled into the 15 range by many national prognosticators.
Demin showed his potential during the NCAA Tournament by playing arguably some of his best ball of the season, averaging 13.6 points and 5.8 assists per game while also shooting 43% from the field. However, his 3-point percentage was still around his season average of 28%. Overall, his performance has helped him move up a spot or two in many mock drafts, but he’s still sitting around 15 in many mock drafts at the moment. That, of course, could all change at the NBA Combine if he performs well.
From being considered a Top 5 pick to most likely not even being a lottery pick (Top 14) now, I think it makes a lot of sense for Egor to return to BYU to work towards becoming a Top 5 or Top 10 pick next year. In addition, the salaries for high lottery picks are a big difference as you can see in the table below.
| 2024-25 Rookie Scale | |||||
| Pick | Total Value | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
| 1 | $57,027,437 | $12,569,040 | $13,197,720 | $13,826,040 | $17,434,637 |
| 2 | $51,036,398 | $11,245,680 | $11,808,240 | $12,370,680 | $15,611,798 |
| 3 | $45,853,025 | $10,098,960 | $10,603,560 | $11,108,880 | $14,041,625 |
| 4 | $41,351,699 | $9,105,120 | $9,560,520 | $10,015,920 | $12,670,139 |
| 5 | $37,463,383 | $8,245,320 | $8,657,280 | $9,069,600 | $11,491,183 |
| 6 | $34,035,473 | $7,488,720 | $7,863,240 | $8,237,880 | $10,445,633 |
| 7 | $31,085,018 | $6,836,400 | $7,178,400 | $7,519,920 | $9,550,298 |
| 8 | $28,491,576 | $6,262,920 | $6,576,120 | $6,889,320 | $8,763,216 |
| 9 | $26,202,577 | $5,756,880 | $6,045,000 | $6,332,760 | $8,067,937 |
| 10 | $24,897,090 | $5,469,120 | $5,742,480 | $6,015,600 | $7,669,890 |
| 11 | $23,950,723 | $5,195,520 | $5,455,560 | $5,715,360 | $7,584,283 |
| 12 | $23,030,850 | $4,935,960 | $5,182,920 | $5,429,760 | $7,482,210 |
| 13 | $22,141,697 | $4,689,000 | $4,923,720 | $5,158,080 | $7,370,897 |
| 14 | $21,290,770 | $4,454,880 | $4,677,600 | $4,900,560 | $7,257,730 |
| 15 | $20,466,073 | $4,231,800 | $4,443,360 | $4,654,920 | $7,135,993 |
| 16 | $19,448,588 | $4,020,360 | $4,221,360 | $4,422,600 | $6,784,268 |
| 17 | $18,483,220 | $3,819,120 | $4,010,160 | $4,201,080 | $6,452,860 |
| 18 | $17,567,626 | $3,628,440 | $3,809,520 | $3,991,200 | $6,138,466 |
| 19 | $16,785,132 | $3,465,000 | $3,638,160 | $3,811,800 | $5,870,172 |
| 20 | $16,118,700 | $3,326,160 | $3,492,480 | $3,658,560 | $5,641,500 |
| 21 | $15,654,827 | $3,193,200 | $3,353,040 | $3,512,760 | $5,595,827 |
| 22 | $15,203,658 | $3,065,640 | $3,218,760 | $3,372,120 | $5,547,138 |
| 23 | $14,764,114 | $2,943,120 | $3,090,480 | $3,237,120 | $5,493,394 |
| 24 | $14,336,172 | $2,825,520 | $2,966,760 | $3,108,000 | $5,435,892 |
| 25 | $13,917,008 | $2,712,120 | $2,847,600 | $2,983,680 | $5,373,608 |
| 26 | $13,460,726 | $2,622,360 | $2,753,280 | $2,884,440 | $5,200,646 |
| 27 | $13,076,519 | $2,546,640 | $2,674,080 | $2,801,640 | $5,054,159 |
| 28 | $12,998,353 | $2,530,800 | $2,657,760 | $2,784,240 | $5,025,553 |
| 29 | $12,903,788 | $2,512,680 | $2,638,200 | $2,763,960 | $4,988,948 |
| 30 | $12,810,353 | $2,494,320 | $2,619,000 | $2,744,040 | $4,952,993 |
Let’s be honest, getting drafted and making millions is what every college basketball player dreams of, especially those like Demin who have been in training academies and living away from home. When he was 16 years old, Demin had to leave his parents house to train and play, including learnings two languages and playing abroad.
Fulfilling a dream, making millions and not risking an injury playing another year of college ball is very tempting, however, I believe there are three compelling reasons why it makes sense for Demin to run it back one more time in Provo.
Why Egor Demin Should Stay At BYU
1. Development / Skill Refinement: Returning to BYU would allow Demin to further develop his game, his frame, and work his weaknesses. This season the 6-foot-9 guard shot just 27.3% from beyond the arc (42-154) which isn’t going to cut it in the NBA. His size (6-foot-9) is one of his greatest strengths as he can shoot, pass and guard nearly anyone. The only downside is that he only weighs 190 pounds, which is why he often gets pushed around and why he needs to put on more weight/muscle.
Another weakness is that Demin hasn’t dealt with pressure very well this year — although it has gotten a lot better the last few games. Despite that, for the season, he averaged 2.9 turnovers per contest. In a lot of Big 12 contests when the game was coming down to the wire, Demin was frequently on the bench due his turnovers, with Dallin Hall running the show because of his consistency and being less turnover prone.
Playing college basketball, especially in the Big 12 with its physicality, was something Demin had to get used to as it was quite different than what he faced playing in Europe. However, that’s one of the reasons why Demin wanted to come and play so that he could improve and become NBA ready. Staying another year would provide a lot of benefits and could push him to being a Top 5 pick.
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2. Improve Draft Stock and Earnings: The NBA Draft is unpredictable, and with NIL now, there’s not a huge rush/need to get to the NBA like it used to.
A prime example is Duke big man Kyle Filipowski who played two seasons with the Blue Devils. The 7-footer averaged 16.4 points and 8.3 rebounds as a sophomore and was invited to the NBA green room with many expecting him to be a mid first round draft pick. Surprisingly, he ended up being taken in the second round (32nd pick).
I don’t envision that happening to Egor if he decides to go to the NBA, however, with a number of mock drafts predicting him to be in the 15 range, there is a real possibility that he could slip to 20.
When it comes to earnings, there is a big difference when it comes from being a high lottery pick or not.
No. 5 pick = 4-year $37M
No. 10 pick = 4-year $25M
No. 15 pick = 4-year $20M
No. 20 pick = 4-year $16M
If Egor is chosen with the 15th pick, he would leave $5M-$17M on the table if he were to climb into the Top 10 the following year. If he ends up being picked 20th, he would leave approximately $9M-$21M on the table over a 4-year deal.
With NIL and endorsements these days, Egor could likely get close to his NBA earnings if he stayed, which means he wouldn’t miss in terms of pay and could continue to develop himself into a more polished player to cement himself as a Top 5 pick next year.
It also helps that Demin would be able to play with AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 high school recruit, who many are calling the best NBA prospect since LeBron James. NBA scouts will almost certainly be at every BYU game, which will provide Demin even more opportunities to impress NBA scouts and redeem himself for the hot and cold performances that he’s had in front of them this season.
With what will likely be a loaded roster next year, combined with playing for a coach and a system that he’s familiar with now, Demin could easily take his game to the next level and cement himself as a Top 5 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
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3. College Experience and Leadership: After the loss in the Sweet 16 against Alabama, Demin was very emotional afterwards. It was clear that he has enjoyed his time at BYU which has embraced him and become his second family, including Sunday dinners with BYU legend Travis Hansen.
The college basketball experience isn’t something he’ll be able to come back to if he enters the NBA Draft, and at just 19 years old, playing another year at BYU isn’t going to hurt his chances or his NBA career.
As mentioned, money won’t be an issue if Demin comes back to BYU, and the opportunity to make program history — reaching a Final Four — while playing with what is expected to be a loaded roster, with a great opportunity to cement himself as a Top 5 pick, are just some of the reasons why Demin could choose to stay one more year.
In also helps that Demin has never proclaimed that he was a 1-and-done player, that’s just what many media members assume he would do since he has been projected to be a lottery pick for much of the season.
Final Thoughts
There’s definitely a lot of pros and cons as to why Demin should stay or go, but in the end, I think another year at BYU would be more beneficial for all the reasons I have mentioned above.
In the end, it going to come down what Demin wants, however, as of now, it feels that it’s a 50/50 shot on if he’ll return. At the start of the season, nobody thought it would even be a conversation, however, the BYU experience has certainly made a big impact on the freshman and if he does stay another year, the Cougars loaded roster will have a great shot at making the program’s first Final Four appearance.
With a shot at making program history and climbing up the draft boards and cementing himself as a top pick, there’s quite a bit of optimism brewing in Provo and it’s easy to see why.
Whatever Demin decides to do, hopefully he’ll make it known quickly so the Cougars can fill his void if he does decide to leave for the NBA.
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