BYU and VCU will headline arguably the most anticipated matchup during the first round of Thursday’s tournament opener in Denver, Colorado.
Tipoff is scheduled for 4:05 PM ET at Ball Arena, and the game will be televised on TNT.
It will be offense vs. defense showdown as the 6th-seeded Cougars come in as one of the top offensive teams in the country. However, VCU, the Atlantic 10 champs, come in with one of the best defensives in the country. The Rams are also under-seeded as many metrics and prognosticators had them being a 10 seed, not the lowest of all the 11 seeds.
BYU earned the top sixth seed (No. 21 overall) — one spot away from a fifth seed, however, the Cougars drew arguably the toughest 11 seed.
This is the third consecutive time that BYU is a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and also the second consecutive time that the Cougars are facing an opponent from the Atlantic 10 Conference after losing to Duquesne last year in the first round.
VCU is coached by former Utah State head coach Ryan Odom. They are led by the backcourt duo of Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile. Both players average 15 points per game, with Shulga — who also played at Utah State under Odom — being named the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year.
BYU vs. VCU
| BYU | VCU | |
| Record: | 24-9 | 28-6 |
| NET | 25 | 31 |
| KenPom | 24 | 30 |
| Quad 1: | 8-7 | 2-1 |
| Quad 2: | 6-2 | 6-4 |
| Strength of Schedule | 50 | 120 |
| Wins vs. Tourney Teams | 5 | 1 |
| Record vs. Tourney Teams | 5-5 | 1-1 |
| Best Win | Iowa State — 2X (NET 9) | Colorado State (NET 47) |
| Worst loss | Providence (NET 100) | Seton Hall (NET 211) |
| Oddsmakers | BYU -2.5 | |
| KenPom Prediction | BYU 74, VCU 73 | |
Why BYU Should Beat VCU
Make no mistake, I think this game is more difficult for both teams than it will be playing Wisconsin — who should take are of business against Montana. Whoever wins this matchup on Thursday, will likely beat the Badgers in my opinion.
Having said that, as great as VCU is, I think BYU will come away with a close win. Here are just a few reasons why.
1. Location — Advantage BYU.
Because BYU doesn’t play on Sunday’s, there isn’t a lot of options for the Cougars who tend to drop a seed because of it. However, while a No. 5 seed would have been better, the fact that BYU gets to play in Denver — just 6-7 hours away, is huge compared to VCU where a road trip will be 25+ hours.
Denver was going to be the best-case scenario for BYU and they got it as they don’t have to travel to Lexington, Kentucky; Wichita, Kansas; or Providence, Rhode Island for the first two rounds.
There are a lot of Cougar faithful in Denver, and with the short drive from Utah, I fully expect Thursday’s game to feel like a home game for BYU players and coaches. Not to mention the time and altitude adjustments that VCU will have to make too.
2. Battle Tested — Advantage BYU.
The Big 12 and Atlantic 10 are vastly different. Every single Big 12 team is in the Top 100 and is a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game. The Big 12 is also rated right behind the SEC as the second best conference (we’ll see which conference really is the best with the tournament now here). On the flip side, the Atlantic 10 is rated by many as the 8th best conference this season, one spot below the WCC. This is a huge advantage for the Cougars as not only have they been battle tested in the Big 12, but they’ve won against Top 25 competition on the road too. Meanwhile, VCU, which has no Top 25 wins, has only played two teams that are in the NCAA Tournament. They went 1-1.
3. BYU Offense > VCU Defense.
While most metrics are useful, they don’t tell the whole story. Yes, VCU is rated as one of the top defensive teams in the county, however, just take a look at their schedule. The Rams have played a very soft schedule with the Atlantic 10 being just a one-bid league. To sum up, VCU hasn’t played anyone so I don’t think their defense is “vaunted” as everyone thinks it is.
BYU’s offense adjusted efficiency is No. 11 in KenPom. The highest rated KenPom offense VCU has played all year is Dayton, who checks in at No. 51 in KenPom. So how did VCU do against Dayton? The Rams split the series 1-1 and allowed Dayton to score an average of 73.5 points and shoot 42% from the field, including 38% from beyond the arc. If VCU was in the Big 12, they would be roughly in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, behind Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, West Virginia, and Cincinnati.
We all know how BYU has fared against Houston (0-2), however, BYU is a combined 6-1 against the other four teams who are ranked in Top 25 of defensive efficiency, scoring an average of 81.5 points per game.
4. Revenge “Chip On Their Shoulder” — Advantage BYU.
The Cougars lost to Duquesne last year in the 6 vs. 11 matchup, so the fact that BYU is going up against another Atlantic 10 member will fuel the revenge factor. No doubt the Cougars remember what happened last year and will be sure not to come into Thursday’s game overconfident like last time. A good chunk of the team returned from last season as players such as Dallin Hall, Richie Saunders, Fousseyni Traore and Trevin Knell will make sure the team doesn’t sleepwalk on Thursday and plays with a chip on their shoulder. This BYU team is also vastly improved from last year.
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5. Beyond The Arc — Advantage BYU.
Both teams love to shoot the ball from beyond the arc — who doesn’t anymore! The Cougars and Rams combine to shoot nearly half of their field goals from downtown. BYU shoots 48% of its attempts, while VCU shoots 47%. However, there is a stark difference in makes as the Cougars make 37% (36th nationally), while the Rams make just 33% (210th nationally). If the Cougars hit their average, they’ll be just fine. If the Rams want to pull off an upset, they’ll need to hold BYU below their average, while knocking down a higher percentage for themselves
6. Size — Advantage BYU.
VCU, like a typical mid-major team, doesn’t have the size like P4 teams do. However, they make up for it with their scrappiness. VCU’s Jack Clark, a 6-foot-10, 215 pound senior is the team’s leading rebounder at 6.9 per game. However, the next three leading rebounders for the Rams are all guards.
With VCU’s smaller lineup, BYU should be able to get a lot of good looks down low in the paint with Traore (6-foot-7, 250 pounds) and Keba Keita (6-foot-8, 235 pounds), muscling and backing down Clark. If the Cougars can get Clark into early foul trouble, the better.
Conclusion
All the pressure will be on BYU. VCU is the underdog so I expect them to plat loose which will help keep the Rams close throughout the game. In the end, I think BYU, with it’s deep rotation, will wear down VCU and will be too much.
It’s been awhile since either team won a game in the NCAA Tournament. The last time for BYU was in 2012 and 2016 for VCU. One of those streaks will come to an end Thursday evening, and I think that will be BYU with the third time being the charm as the No. 6 seed.
Thursday’s meeting will be just the second time both programs have faced off. BYU defeated VCU 81-77 in the only meeting between the two schools on Dec. 16, 1983 at the University of Kentucky Invitational.
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