No. 6 BYU hosts Kansas Saturday night at LaVell Edwards Stadium as the Cougars look to go 10-0 for just the fourth time in program history. The last time they did so was in 2001 when the team finished the season 12-2, losing two straight after star running back Luke Staley — The Doak Walker award winner — went down with a season ending injury.
BYU, which is 9-0 this year, faces a Kansas team that is 3-6. You would think on paper that the Cougars would be heavy favorites to beat the Jayhawks — especially playing at home and with it being late at night too.
But as Lee Corso would say, “not so fast my friend.”
Oddsmakers have BYU as just a 2.5 point favorite — meaning if the game was played at a neutral site field, the game would be a toss up.
I understand some of the arguments such as BYU having a number of comebacks this season. It doesn’t help that in two of their last three games, the Cougars needed to score with less than 20 seconds to go to win both of those games.
Kansas has also been playing well, beating No. 17 Iowa State last week. Don’t let their record fool you. The Jayhawks are the best 3-win team in the country as the team has lost a number of heartbreaking games in the fourth quarter. So far this season, five of those six losses have been by one possession, or an average of 4 points per game. A couple different plays or the ball bouncing a different way and Kansas could very well have 7 or 8 wins and be ranked in the College Football Playoff.
Having said that, BYU is 7-2 against the spread this season and has been proving doubters wrong each and every week. Even against UCF a couple weeks ago, the Cougars, who were 7-0 at the time, were underdogs in that game against a team that was 3-4. And we all know how that went. The Cougars went on the road and got out to a 34-10 lead at the start of the fourth quarter before putting their backups in which allowed the Knights to score two meaningless touchdowns to make the final score (37-24) closer than it really was.
As players and coaches have mentioned many times this year, they see the “expert predictions” and lines from oddsmakers and use that disrespect to motivate them even more and to stay focused on the task at hand. After a big rivalry win, let downs are common in college athletics, and Cougar fans hope the team can get past that and make a statement to keep the undefeated season going against a solid Kansas team.
I expect BYU to cover the spread Saturday night and win like they’ve done this season, however, most national experts do not have that same opinion. Here’s a look at what many of them are saying across the country about the BYU-Kansas game.
Greg McElroy Picks Kansas Over BYU
BYU fans are very familiar with Greg McElroy who has covered several memorable games over the years, including BYU’s 30-27 overtime over USC at LaVell Edwards Stadium as well as BYU’s 29-26 overtime road win over Tennessee.
The former Alabama quarterback has been a huge BYU supporter this year as evident by his persuasive argument about why BYU should be ranked higher during the first week of the playoff rankings.
However, like many other analysts this week, McElroy believes that Kansas is ripe for another upset this weekend after knocking off No. 17 Iowa State last week. The ESPN analyst says BYU needs to be careful and not have a hangover situation after the thrilling win over rival Utah. He goes on to say that Kansas is finally playing well and like everyone expected them to at the start of the season, which is why the Jayhawks were one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year. McElroy adds that the Jayhawks, who have been on the wrong side of a number of close losses this year, are finally starting to come together as a team and combined with their offensive firepower, will help pull the upset.
Here’s the link where you can hear the entire segment (32:00-35:00).
Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU No. 1, Colorado, ASU Rise — Iowa State Falls (Week 12)
Clay Travis Predict Kansas to Upset BYU
Clay Travis, who has defended BYU in the past — including getting a BYU t-shirt several years ago to support the Cougars during COVID — doesn’t have much faith in the undefeated Cougars this week as he expects Kansas to win and cover the 3-point spread.
Here’s what he had to say about the game:
“You know how undefeated Miami flirted with losing for several weeks before finally losing? Yeah, that’s where BYU is right now.
Kansas has nothing to lose and is suddenly playing decent football. BYU feels all the pressure of the undefeated season and isn’t playing as well.
Plus, let’s be honest, this line stinks to the high heavens, a 3.0 underdog Kansas team on the road against an undefeated BYU? Vegas smells something — it’s a big underdog road win.
Rock, chalk, cover.”
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PFF’s Dalton Wasserman Picks Kansas To Beat BYU, Max Chadwick Defends The Cougars
Despite having Jake Retzlaff on the show a couple weeks ago and apologizing to him for rating him as the worst quarterback in the Big 12 during the offseason, Pro Football Focus analyst Dalton Wasserman believes Kansas’ strong showing as of late gives the Jayhawks a great chance to knock off BYU.
“I’m going to take Kansas in this game. I’m very worried about it (for BYU). I think the close spread in this game is right. I think we have close to a coin flip in this game. People will go, what the ______? One team is 9-0 and the other team is 3-6. But that’s not a normal 3-6 football team. If BYU is not on full alert in this game, as much alert as they were against Utah, this cannot be a trap game. They have to win this game. On the outside people aren’t going to look at it like the way we are looking at it. They will see a team that finishes around 4-8 or 5-7 and say ‘that’s pathetic.’ I’ll tell them, no, that team is a lot better than their record shows and nobody is going to listen. I’m going to put it out there right now… I have Kansas winning this game. I think it’s much more of a coinflip than we think. They do a lot of things on offense — if they can protect the ball — that can bother BYU’s defense.”
It’s not all bad Cougar fans as PFF analyst Max Chadwick, who has been a big supporter throughout the year, predicted BYU would win 31-27 and keep the undefeated season going. He noted that Kansas is prone to turning the ball over and BYU is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers.
Here’s the video and breakdown.
Barstool Team Likes Kansas, Portnoy Defends BYU
Dan “Big Cat” Katz, Brandon Walker, and host Kayce Smith all picked Kansas to not only cover, but to beat BYU as well.
Dan believes this game is where BYU trips up and predicts that Kansas will win.
Brandon calls BYU the biggest pretender in all of college football and expects Kansas to not only cover, but to win outright as well.
Dave Portnoy, the owner of Barstool Sports defends the Cougars though. He’s a big fan of Jake Retzlaff and “BY-Jew” and is also impressed by the Cougars resume with Top 20 wins over SMU and Kansas State. Portnoy predicts the BYU to beat Kansas and cover.
See the video below for the full breakdown.
Danny Kanell Picks Kansas, Bud Elliott Picks BYU
The tables have turned.
Danny Kanell, who has been a huge BYU supporter this year — even ranking the Cougars No. 3 in his power rankings — is predicting a Kansas win on Saturday.
“I’ve been a big backer of BYU where their resume says they should be. If they win I will do it again, but I don’t think they are winning. Kansas is the best 3-win team in the country. Give me Kansas as the road underdog.”
On the other hand, Bud Elliott who hasn’t believed in the Cougars at all this year, made a surprising pick in that he thinks BYU will win against the Jayhawks.
“I don’t think BYU is that bad. BYU has played a little better in recent weeks and I still like their defense. I’m concerned about their run defense against Devin Neal and those guys, but I think BYU can score and I’ll take BYU and the points. That (LaVell Edwards) is not an easy place to go and play as Kansas State found out.”
Here’s a link to the full clip (6:20-9:00).
Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU No. 1, Colorado, ASU Rise — Iowa State Falls (Week 12)
Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica
Chris Fallica, who is now with Fox Sports, believes BYU is the next undefeated to fall after seeing Miami lose last week. Here’s what he had to say:
“For the entirety of the season, it was the Cardiac Canes— as my alma mater was earning one-score win after one-score win under Mario Cristobal. After all the escapes, Miami lost to Georgia Tech, ending their magical run. But now, it’s time for the Cardiac Cougars. BYU is 9-0 with five of those wins coming by seven points or less, and three of them coming by three or less. Last week it took several 50-50 calls to go their way and a game-winning field goal as time expired to get a one-point victory over 4-4 Utah. They just need two wins in their final three games to guarantee themselves a spot in the Big 12 title game. They take on 3-6 Kansas this week and are just favored by three points at home. Since 1978, there have been 66 instances of a team 9-0 or better facing a team with a losing record at home. Every single one of those was a double-digit favorite, until this week. Oddsmakers know what’s up with the Cougars.”
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