After knocking off then-No. 13 Kansas State (3-1) on Saturday, No. 22 BYU (4-0) looks to keep its undefeated season going as the Cougars head to Waco, Texas to take on Baylor (2-2).
The Cougars and the Bears are meeting for just the fifth time in the series and the first time as Big 12 conference foes. The series is tied at 2-2 with both programs undefeated at home. BYU’s last win came in 2022 when No. 21 BYU beat No. 9 Baylor 26-20 in double overtime.
The prior year, BYU went into McLane Stadium ranked 19th in the nation and walked out with a 38-24 loss. BYU’s Gerry Bohanon was the quarterback of the Bears in 2021 and went 18 of 28 for 231 yards with one touchdown against the Cougars. Bohanon led the Bears to the Big 12 title, a Sugar Bowl win and a No. 5 ranking to end the year.
Will Baylor keep the home field advantage going in the series, or will BYU finally break the streak?
Let’s dig in.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 10:00 a.m. MT
TV: FS1
Announcers: Alex Faust (play-by-play), Robert Smith (analyst)
Location: McLane Stadium (45,140) — Waco, Texas
All-Time Results
The series is tied 2-2, with both programs undefeated at home.
No. 21 BYU 26, No. 9 Baylor 20, 2OT (2022)
Baylor 38, No. 19 BYU 24 (2021)
BYU 47, Baylor 13 (1984)
Baylor 40, BYU 36 (1983)
Betting Lines
The Spread: Baylor -3.5
Money Line: Baylor -160, BYU +130
Over/Under: 45.5
When betting lines first opened, Baylor was a one-point favorite, however, as of now, the line has increased as the Bears are now 3.5 point favorites against the Cougars.
The over/under opened at 47.5 and has since dropped to 45.5. In regards to the money line, oddsmakers are favoring Baylor at -160 with BYU at +130. The money line simply involves picking the winning team. With Baylor at -160, those picking the Bears would have to risk $160 to win $100. However, for those picking the Cougars, one would win $130 for his/her $100 wager.
SP+, a predictive analytics tool created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, has BYU tying Baylor 26-26… which translates to: the game is a toss up. So far this year, SP+ is 2-2 in its BYU picks. Bill gives BYU a 50% chance of beating the Bears, which is very similar to ESPN’s Football Power Index. As of right now, the FPI gives BYU a 52% chance of beating Baylor.
Big 12 Football Power Rankings: BYU, Utah Top 2 — KSU, OSU Fall (Week 5)
BYU vs. Baylor Preview
For the first time since 1996, BYU scored touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams against Kansas State last week as the Cougars continue to play well in all facets of the game. BYU even had a kickoff return for a touchdowns two weeks ago, so if Baylor wants to win this game, they cannot allow BYU to score on defense or special teams — especially considering BYU’s offense hasn’t done a lot this year. But they also haven’t had to thanks to a defense that is allowing just 12.5 points per game. Stats can be misleading so early on in the season, however, the Cougars have already played two P4 programs with high-powered offenses at that and is the only team — besides Georgia — that has two Top 30 wins so far this season.
For Baylor, the Bears come in looking to get back on track after a heartbreaking 38-31 loss to Colorado on the road in overtime. The Buffs got a touchdown off a Hail Mary on the last play of the game which led Colorado winning in overtime.
Don’t be fooled by Baylor’s 2-2 record as the Bears played a close game against Utah — better than what Oklahoma State did last week — and lost the Colorado game on that heartbreaking Hail Mary. To me, based on what I’m seen so far, Baylor is a middle of the road Big 12 team so Saturday’s game will be tough. Especially against a Bear defense that loves to get after it. Last week against Colorado, Baylor’s defense registered 8 sacks.
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff will need to play smart and not only avoid turnovers, but will need to avoid taking sacks so the offense isn’t put in a bad spot as the Cougars are one of the worst teams when it comes to third down conversion. Fortunately, fourth down has been very kind for BYU this year, but the Cougars shouldn’t push their luck and can’t go to the well every time.
The encouraging news for BYU fans is that Retzlaff took a step forward as the junior didn’t turn the ball over like he’s prone to do. Sources say BYU fans were signing the Frozen song, “For the first time in forever,” after the Kansas State win. In other good news, BYU found it’s running back of the future in freshman star Sione Moa who rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Wildcats. The 5-foot-10, 215-pounder averaged more than 5 yards per carry and was bulldozing over Kansas State’s defense.
On the other side of the ball is Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who stepped in for Dequan Finn who got injured earlier this year. Finn won the starting role, but due to his injury against Utah, Robertson has taken over and is starting to look comfortable. Robertson can run — as evident by his 45-yard touchdown run against Colorado, but he’s more of a passer first than runner like Finn is.
The keys to the game for Baylor is not allowing any special teams or defensive touchdowns and making BYU’s offense go the length of the field, which has been hard for the Cougars this year.
For BYU, knowing that Baylor loves to bring pressure and create negative plays, it’s important that the Cougars control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Keep the pressure off Jake, while also stuffing the Bears run game which has 4 players with more than 100 yards each. Robertson isn’t super accurate so by making the Bears one-dimensional should lead to a BYU win.
Big 12 Football Power Rankings: BYU, Utah Top 2 — KSU, OSU Fall (Week 5)
Prediction: BYU 20, Baylor 17
I think this game will be a close one, but I give BYU the edge. The Cougars appear to be the better team, but on any given Saturday, anybody can win, just ask Notre Dame fans about Northern Illinois.
The reason I think it’s close is that BYU struggles on the road, especially in day games. In fact, BYU has lost 10 consecutive day games against FBS competition, including 0-6 on the road. However, play against BYU at night, and at LaVell Edwards Stadium, and it’s a completely different story. So far this year, every game in 2024 has been in the evening so it’s hard to say if the Cougars can shake that off and put their troubles behind them.
I also think Baylor will come out fired up after last week’s loss as they look to beat a ranked team at home — a place that BYU has never won. The good news for BYU fans is that Baylor has lost 5 of its last 7 games at home, so McLane Stadium isn’t some daunting stadium. The Cougars have also beaten the spread handedly this year which is a sign of a great team. Baylor on the other hand, has not.
Keeping Baylor under 20 points is the magical numbers as Baylor Head coach Dave Aranda has never won a game at Baylor (0-13) when scoring fewer than 20 points. For a BYU defense that is allowing just 12.5 points per games, getting to 20 seems like a very tall task for the Bears. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 22-7 under head coach Kalani Sitake when playing as a ranked team.
To sum up, I think BYU’s offense will continue to struggle somewhat moving the ball down the field, however, I think the Cougar offense will do just enough to get the win as the defense asserts itself and doesn’t allow Baylor to reach 20 points.
A road win will help BYU make another statement to voters that the Cougars are the real deal, despite being the underdog once again.
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