BYU and Alabama will headline arguably the most anticipated Sweet 16 matchup during Thursday’s showdown inside the Prudential Center (16,755) in Newark, New Jersey.
The game will start at 5:10 PM (MT) and will be nationally televised on CBS.
With two of the best offenses in the country going at it, combined with two of the fastest tempo teams as well, Thursday’s game could very well reach 100+, which is likely why CBS prioritized this game to kick off the Sweet 16.
BYU comes in as a five-point underdog, however, many national experts believe the Cougars will “upset” Alabama.
I believe the Cougars will win and have precisely predicted how BYU’s tournament games would play out (see here and here) so far. You’re welcome Cougar fans.
On that note, here’s a few reasons why I believe BYU will knock off Alabama on Thursday.
Big 12 Ties Sweet 16 Record, Restores Reputation In NCAA Tournament
Why BYU Can Beat Alabama
1. Momentum: BYU is 9-1 in their last 10 games while Alabama is 6-4. It took some time for new BYU head coach Kevin Young to figure out his lineup, but once he did, the Cougars have been nearly unbeatable. Everyone on the team has settled into their role and the unselfishness leads to open looks for all of BYU’s sharpshooters.
Meanwhile, Alabama hasn’t looked or played particularly well down the stretch. Two months ago, the Crimson Tide seemed to have hit their stride and were arguably one of the top teams in the country. However, injuries such as to star Grant Nelson who doesn’t seem to be 100% yet, have impacted the team. Despite wanting to rest him in the first round game against No. 15 seed Robert Morris, Nelson ended up having to play as the Crimson Tide were down by one with just seven minutes left in the game. Alabama still has a ton of talent, however, the team hasn’t played elite recently, while BYU has.
2. Size Advantage: Alabama has a lot of shooters that are quick and that love to run in transition. However, they are also small. Mark Sears and Aden Holloway are 6-foot-1, while Chris Youngblood and Labaron Philon are 6-foot-4. Meanwhile, BYU’s backcourt consists of Egor Demin (6-foot-9), as well as Trevin Knell and Richie Saunders (both 6-foot-5). Dallin Hall and Dawson Baker are also 6-foot-5 that come off the bench.
The Cougars will have no trouble shooting over Alabama’s smaller defenders, and I wouldn’t be surprised if BYU adds a few wrinkles where Demin and Saunders post up on Alabama’s smaller guards. Not only are the Cougars taller, but are bulkier as well (200-220 pounds) compared to Alabama’s backcourt (180-200 pounds). This should make it easier for BYU to box out the Crimson Tide and get a number of second chance opportunities. And with the way BYU has been shooting over the past month, that’s a death sentence for opposing teams.
3. Style + Pressure Free: As the No. 2 seed, Alabama has all the pressure to win on Thursday. Reaching the Sweet 16 is already a huge accomplishment for the Cougars, so to put it in layman terms, the Cougars are playing with house money. They are the underdogs, they have already surpassed expectations, and because of that, I expect them to come out and play loose. This team also loves to play with a chip on their shoulder and has performed well in big games.
It also helps that Alabama doesn’t press or provide a lot of pressure on defense, something that BYU has struggled with this season, and a big reason why they’ve been blown out against Houston. BYU did a great job against VCU which is similar to Houston, just not as talented. The Tide are one of the worst teams in the country in forced turnovers so I expect the Cougars to get a lot of good lucks on Thursday.
4. X-Factors (Demin and Sears): BYU freshman sensation Egor Demin has had a lot of ups and downs this year. He shown flashes of brilliance, and other times he doesn’t even look like a first round draft pick. Thankfully for BYU fans, Demin is not only playing like a lottery pick again, but he’s playing like a Top 3 pick and has saved his best ball of the entire season until now. Against Wisconsin, the freshman nearly had a triple double with 8 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists.
As I mentioned earlier, BYU, particularly Demin, does not do well against high-pressure defenses. Just look at the games against Houston and Iowa State as examples. However, luckily for BYU, Alabama is one of the worst when it comes to forcing turnovers. This will allow Demin to get comfortable and that’s a dangerous thing for opposing teams.
On the other side, Alabama’s Mark Sears has been playing arguably his worst ball of the season the last two weeks, and it couldn’t come at a worse time. In just his last five games, the senior is shooting 33% from the field (21 of 63), including 12% from 3-point range (3-25). As the team’s leading scorer, Sears needs to shoot the ball better if the Crimson Tide want to beat BYU.
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU — Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction
Sweet 16 Prediction: BYU 92, Alabama 90
This game has all the ingredients to be the best game of the tournament.
For BYU to advance, they’ll need another sharp-shooting performance, coupled with a well-balanced attack in the paint to create open opportunities from beyond the arc. Alabama, a team that loves to shoot it from downtown and get transition layups, will pose a challenge, so BYU’s defense will need to focus on limiting fast breaks and not letting Alabama get offensive rebounds and second-chance points.
Additionally, Richie Saunders (16.3 PPG), the heart and soul of BYU, must stay out of foul trouble. He’s had to sit out key moments late in the first half against VCU and Wisconsin due to fouls—mostly coming from lazy reach-ins after not getting a call when he’s drove to the basket. Saunders needs to stay composed, as the Cougars can’t afford to have their star player on the bench for extended periods.
On the flip side, Alabama will need to apply more defensive pressure, particularly on the perimeter, to prevent BYU from getting easy looks from deep, as the Cougars take nearly half of their shots from beyond the arc. Just like BYU, Alabama must also focus on limiting second-chance opportunities. Both teams can shoot the ball, and a couple extra possessions will make all the difference.
At the end of the day, these two teams are evenly matched, which should make for an exciting, high-scoring game. With all the pressure on Alabama, combined with BYU playing some of the best basketball in the country, I’m picking the Cougars to pull off a slight upset and make it to the Elite 8 for the first time since 1981.
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No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU — Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction
