No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU — Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

BYU and Alabama will kick off the Sweet 16 in primetime on Thursday as the second-seeded Crimson Tide and the sixth-seeded Cougars battle for a spot in the Elite 8.

The game will start at 5:10 PM (MT) and will be nationally televised on CBS.

Thursday’s showdown will be must-see TV as it puts two of the best offenses in the country against each other. When the brackets first came out, everyone was excited about the possibility of these two teams matching up in the Sweet 16, and we got exactly that. Both teams are averaging 85 points per game in the tournament despite going up against some of the toughest defenses: St. Mary’s (7), VCU (25), Wisconsin (27).

BYU and Alabama love to push the pace and with both teams having average defenses, Thursday’s game could come down to whoever scores 100 first. When the first line came out, oddsmakers set the total points at 170, and it’s already hovering around 176 at the moment. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it closer to 180 by Thursday. All the other games are currently in the 140-150 range, so Vegas believes this shootout will live up to the hype, and a big reason why CBS prioritized in getting this game.

Viewing Information

Date: Thursday, March 27
Time: 5:10 PM MT
TV: CBS
Announcers: Brian Anderson, Jim Jackson, Allie LaForce
Location: Prudential Center (16,755) — Newark, New Jersey

All-Time Results

Alabama leads the overall series 2-0.

1957: Alabama 77, BYU 74 (Home – Tuscaloosa)
2017: Alabama 71, BYU 59 (Neutral site – Barclays Center)

No. 6 BYU Advances To Sweet 16 With Thrilling Win Over No. 3 Wisconsin

BYU vs. Alabama

BYU

The Cougars are one of the hottest teams in the country and have won 11 of their last 12 games, including wins over five ranked teams in the process. Of BYU’s nine losses this season, five are against teams in the Sweet 16 (Houston, Texas Tech, Ole Miss and Arizona).

After losing in the first round last year and having and NBA Assistant take over as the head coach with Mark Pope off to Kentucky, many didn’t know what to expect coming into the season. If the Cougars did make the tournament, many weren’t sure how Kevin Young would fare in the win or go home format, instead of the NBA’s 7-game series. Not only that, but BYU has a disappointing tournament history with a 15-34 record in 31 appearances before this tournament — one of a few programs with that many appearances that has not made it to a Final Four.

However, this year feels different than prior years — including the Jimmer Fredette days. This team is arguably the most talented that the Cougars have ever had and there is no team in the country that is playing better complementary ball as the Cougars are.

The team plays a bunch of guys (10-11) and everyone knows their role. Defenses can’t really key on any one guy because the team plays unselfish and anyone could go off for a big night. That’s allowed the Cougars to set records for points scored against VCU and Wisconsin in this tournament. The Rams and Badgers came in with Top 25 defenses, but you wouldn’t know it with BYU averaging 85+ points in the tourney.

No. 6 BYU Advances To Sweet 16 With Thrilling Win Over No. 3 Wisconsin

Alabama

The Crimson Tide will be making their straight Sweet 16 appearance and look to improve on last year’s Final Four run.

Senior Grant Nelson is working his way back from injury and is one of the most important pieces for the Crimson Tide. The team didn’t want to have to play him in the opening round game against Robert Morris, however, with the Tide down 65-64 with 7 minutes to go in the game, the 6-foot-11 forward came in and provided the spark to help Alabama avoid the biggest upset of the tournament.

Alabama is also led by All-America guard Mark Sears who leads the team in scoring (18.6) and assists (5.0) per game. However, Sears has struggled more this year as his field goal percentage is down from last year (50.8% to 40.1%), as well his 3-point percentage (43.6% to 32.9%). Sears has also struggled lately which isn’t a great sign for the Tide. That is one of the reasons why Alabama is 6-4 in their last 10 games.

Despite that, Alabama is still one of the most entertaining brands of basketball thanks to its fast tempo and high-scoring games. The team is ranked No. 1 in tempo and Top 5 in offensive efficiency. Similar to BYU, the Tide also play a deep rotation (10) to keep guys fresh.

To sum up, Alabama has shooters, guys that can attack the rim and get to the free throw line, and they also have a lot of size in the frontcourt that could give BYU trouble. Fousseyni Traore is only 6-foot-6, and Keba Keita is 6-foot-8, however, both are hard to move off the block at 240-250 pounds. So that will be an interesting matchup to watch.

Defensively, Alabama doesn’t create a lot of turnovers as they rank near the very bottom (350th nationally). They do prioritize taking away 3-pointers, allowing opponents to shoot just 34% of their shots from deep. But if Traore and Keita are feasting down low — Robert Morris scored 50 points in the paint — the Tide will have no choice but to send some double teams, which will create open looks from beyond the arc for the Cougars.

Big 12 Ties Sweet 16 Record, Restores Reputation In NCAA Tournament

Prediction: BYU 92, Alabama 90

This game is going to be an absolute barnburner and has all the making of being the best game of the tournament.

If BYU is going to advance, they’ll need another strong shooting performance as well as a balanced attack in the paint to provide open looks from beyond the arc. Alabama also loves to shoot it from deep so not allowing second chance points and offensive rebounds will be critical. In addition, Richie Saunders (16.3 PPG), BYU’s fearless leader, will need to stay out of foul trouble. The junior has had to sit out the last couple of minutes right before the half against VCU and Wisconsin because of two fouls — many of which were lazy reach in fouls after not getting a call when he was driving to the basket. The junior needs to play composed as the Cougars can’t allow their star player to be on the bench for long stretches in this game.

If Alabama is going to win, they’ll need step up the defensive pressure, especially on the outside to not give the Cougars any clean looks as BYU shoots nearly half of their shots from downtown. Taking that away will be key. Similarly to the Cougars, not allowing offensive rebounds and second chance points is going to be huge in this game. Both teams shoot the ball well and will make you pay if they get second chances.

In the end, both teams are evenly matched which will make for a very entertaining and high scoring game. With Alabama having all the pressure to win, and with BYU playing better ball at the moment, I’m going with the Cougars to pull off a mini upset and advance to the Elite 8 for the first time since 1981.

I’ve precisely predicted how BYU’s tournament games would play out (see here and here), and they’ve done exactly that. I’ve watched a lot of film and games on both teams and I’m confident we’ll get a high-scoring and entertaining game.

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No. 6 BYU Advances To Sweet 16 With Thrilling Win Over No. 3 Wisconsin