Big 12 Power Rankings: ISU Rises, KSU Tumbles — Don’t Sleep On BYU, Utah, Kansas (Week 1)

If you’re looking for a clear-cut Big 12 favorite in 2025, keep looking.

This year’s conference race will likely follow last year’s chaos where one game separated first place from seventh. And with the way the tiebreakers work in Big 12 play, every game matters — and who you’ve played too.

With Kansas, Iowa State, and Kansas State already playing in Week 0, the Jayhawks, Cyclones and Wildcats have already started making some moves in Week 1 of my power rankings this week. Below is breakdown of where they’ve moved up/down, as well as how it compares to my preseason projections.

Big 12 Football Tiers

Contenders

I believe there are nine teams that could make the Big 12 championship game in Arlington in December. You can swap any of them out at any moment and I wouldn’t be surprised. And with the 16-team structure, it’s very likely that we’ll have another 4-team tie at the top of the league standings. Start praying that your team wins the tiebreakers:

• Arizona State — The good news is that the team returns most of its starters from last year. The bad news is that the Sun Devils no longer have star running back Cam Skattebo who is now in the NFL. If the running game gets close to last year, they’ll be just fine.
• BYU — Don’t count the Cougars out. The team returns a bunch of starters on both sides of the ball, including special teams where it accounted for 5 touchdowns and game-winning kicks. The defense might be the best in the Big 12 again, and while the loss of QB Retzlaff for honor code violations certainly hurts, his production shouldn’t be hard to replace.
• Iowa State — The Cyclones won a program record 11 games last year and with the return of starting QB Rocco Becht, expect Iowa State to be one of the top contenders to get back to Arlington again. The Cyclones just beat Kansas State in the season opener, giving them a big jump in the race, as well as tiebreaker scenarios.
• Utah — Don’t sleep on the Utes. Last year’s season was an anomaly as the program didn’t make a bowl game for the first time in over a decade. A large part of that was using 4 different quarterbacks due to injuries. The Utes are solid and will be a strong contender this year.
  

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• Kansas State — The Wildcats are hit and miss. On paper, they are loaded with talent and bring back a bunch of starters. However, just like last season, Kansas State continues to fall short of expectations and with an early conference loss to open the season, the Wildcats will have to dig out of an early hole again. The team has the talent to bounce back and get back to Arlington, but will they actually put it together? We’ll find out.
• TCU — The Horned Frogs are a great sleeper pick if they can handle a tough early schedule. TCU comes off a great year (9-4) and returns starting QB Josh Hoover who threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year. The offensive line is very experienced, however, with a lot of skill positions gone, the Horned Frogs will have to gel quickly as they face a tough early schedule.
• Baylor — The offense should be scary good with the return of the dynamic duo of QB Sawyer Robertson and RB Bryson Washington. However, the question everyone is asking is: can the defense stop anyone? If the defense improves from last year, the Bears will be a strong contender.
• Texas Tech — Portal-powered Texas Tech put together one of the most expensive football rosters in all of college football. Anything but a Big 12 championship appearance will be very disappointing for a program that looks to finish in the Top 25 for the first time in 16 years. Yes, they have a star-studded roster, but can a roster overhaul quickly come together to make a special season. We’re about to find out.
• Kansas — Just like several Big 12 preseason favorites last year, Kansas had high hopes with many experts believing the Jayhawks could win the Big 12. Thanks to a number of close losses that could have easily gone the other way, the Jayhawks went 5-7 and missed a bowl game. However, with the return of QB Jalon Daniels and playing home games back in Lawrence after a stadium renovation, Kansas looks like a contender based on its first game of the season.

Mid Tier

These teams can be somewhat dangerous and will likely pull off an upset in conference play, but overall, I don’t believe they’ll be in contention at the end of the season.

• Colorado — All eyes will be on the Buffs to see how they fare without Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, as well as some other key contributors as well. Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter looks like the heir to Sanders at quarterback, but it will be interesting to see if Coach Prime can sustain the recent level of success, or if it was a one-time thing.
• West Virginia — The Mountaineers will be in a total rebuild this year with head coach Rich Rodriguez returning to coach at the program. With so many players graduating or transferring, it will be interesting to see what Rodriguez can do. They have some talent which will cause some problems, but it won’t be enough to be a contender this year.
• Houston — The Cougars have gone 4-8 in their first two Big 12 seasons, and failed to go to a bowl in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2001 and 2002. The Cougars defeated Kansas State, Utah and TCU, so while they won’t be contenders this year, the team has talent to pull off some upsets.
• Cincinnati — The Bearcats have talent, they’ve just been too inconsistent, particularly on offense with turnover issues and too many empty drives. The good news is that Brendan Sorsby returns at QB after having a great season last year as he finished second on the team in rushing yards, first in touchdowns (9), and he threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns. He has All-Big 12-caliber talent, and his team will need him to play like that if they want to pull off some upsets this year.

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Bottom Tier

Don’t expect much from these teams this year. I can see Cincinnati moving up to the mid tier

• Oklahoma State — Last year was miserable for Cowboy fans and I don’t think it’s going to get much better this year. The previous year was the first time since Gundy’s first season in 2005 that Oklahoma State didn’t go to a bowl game. Th program had its worst campaign since 2000 and failed to win a conference game for the first time since 1994.
• UCF — The team still hasn’t found its quarterback and this year looks very similar to what took place last year without a leader under center. Yes, Scott Frost is back after leading the Knights to the Peach Bowl a few years ago, but his team isn’t playing in the AAC anymore. The daily grind each week will continue to hinder UCF as I expect them to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 again.
• Arizona — After an outstanding season two years ago, followed by a major disappointing year last year, which Wildcat team is going to show up this year? Yes, talented QB Noah Fifita is back, however, his favorite target Tetairoa McMillan is now in the NFL. There’s so many questions marks for this team that I don’t seem them surpassing last year’s 4-8 record.

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